Friday, March 16, 2012

Expected Values


If one examines the laws of probability, one can see that there is bound to be a "streak" if enough tries were tried. The key is, it seems to be calling attention to the positive outcome of the situation while ignoring the unsuccessful outcome. Those positive outcomes are the expected values. One expects for the out come to be good when test. Paulos uses the example of Blood testing and your expected value is probability of the blood being healthy rather than being diseased. He uses another example of gambling in a Casino and the expected value is the number on the dice that the person picks. He says that it is 1 out of 6 times that you would get that expected value. He also mentions that if you have more attempts it raises your probability.

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